Champions League last 16: What are each side’s chances?

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March 11, 2020
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    Riyad Mahrez and Kevin de Bruyne

    Kevin de Bruyne’s late penalty at the Bernabeu sealed a 2-1 first-leg win for Manchester City against Real Madrid

    Who are the clubs well placed to progress from the Champions League last 16? And who has it all to do?

    Tottenham were knocked out by RB Leipzig on Tuesday, while Atalanta joined the Germans in the quarter-final with a comfortable aggregate victory over Valencia.

    Two of England’s three remaining clubs head into the second leg with a deficit to turn around – with only Manchester City enjoying a lead.

    To assess the percentage chance of each side reaching the quarter-finals, sports data analysts Gracenote have used their Euro Club Index – feeding the results to us at BBC Sport.

    And BBC Radio 5 Live’s European football experts discuss how they see each Premier League team’s prospects.

    Who are favourites to win it?

    Last year’s Champions League winners Liverpool might be running away with the league, but their 1-0 loss at Atletico Madrid three weeks ago leaves them perilously close to going out.

    “As Liverpool have a tough task on their hands to reach this season’s Champions League quarter-finals, Bayern Munich, Manchester City and Barcelona are the three big favourites to reach the final,” says Simon Gleave, head of sports analysis at Gracenote.

    “Should Liverpool knock out Atletico, the Reds will again be one of the big favourites to reach the final and win the tournament as they are the Euro Club Index’s number-one ranked team.”

    But if you think it looks tough for Liverpool, then spare a thought for Chelsea, whose 3-0 first-leg loss to Bayern Munich gives them a 0.3% chance of winning the competition.

    Liverpool v Atletico Madrid (Wed, agg 0-1)

    How has this score played out previously? Teams winning 1-0 at home in the first leg have progressed 23 times and been eliminated 10 times.

    European football journalist Kristof Terreur: “Atletico had a strong game plan when they beat Liverpool but they haven’t been that good. We saw the real Atletico against Liverpool – but don’t underestimate Liverpool at home. Usually they can go the extra mile.”

    Spanish football journalist Guillem Balague: “Liverpool have struggled to break teams down. It needs to be a low-scoring game for Atletico to go through. Their hope again is to score early, but if it is about defending they are happy to do it, not scared at all.”

    Any hope for Liverpool? Liverpool don’t need to look too far back for inspiration. The feat of overturning a 3-0 first-leg deficit against Barcelona in last season’s semi-final will be fresh in their minds.

    Paris St-Germain v Borussia Dortmund (Wed, 1-2)

    How has this score played out previously? Teams winning 2-1 at home in the first leg have progressed 11 times and been eliminated 14 times.

    Any hope for Paris St-Germain? PSG have suffered some particularly cruel blows at the last-16 stage. In 2017, they blew a 4-0 first-leg lead against Barcelona by losing 6-1 at the Nou Camp. Last season, having won 2-0 at Old Trafford, they conceded a late penalty to lose 3-1 at home to Manchester United and go out on away goals. Maybe having to come from behind, rather than hold on to an advantage, will suit them better? Porto were the last team to come back from a 2-1 away defeat in the first leg, winning 3-1 at home to Roma after extra time in last season’s last 16.

    Juventus v Lyon (17 March, agg 0-1)

    How has this score played out previously? Teams winning 1-0 at home in the first leg have progressed 23 times and been eliminated 10 times.

    Any hope for Juventus? Lyon’s last foray into the last 16 did not go well a year ago. They held Barcelona 0-0 at home in the first leg but then suffered a humbling 5-1 defeat at the Nou Camp.

    Manchester City v Real Madrid (17 March, agg 2-1)

    How has this score played out previously? Teams winning 2-1 away in the first leg have progressed eight times and been eliminated once.

    Any hope for Real Madrid? Zinedine Zidane’s side will need to draw on their shock last-16 exit at Ajax’s hands last season. Real won 2-1 in Amsterdam – then got thumped 4-1 at the Bernabeu.

    Barcelona v Napoli (18 March, agg 1-1)

    How has this score played out previously? Teams drawing 1-1 at home in the first leg – as Napoli did – have progressed 12 times and been eliminated 24 times.

    Who has the advantage? The fact that Napoli have gone out in both of their previous appearances at this stage does not bode well. Barcelona also drew their last-16 first leg last season – 0-0 with Lyon – before winning the return 5-1.

    Bayern Munich v Chelsea (18 March, agg 3-0)

    How has this score played out previously? Teams winning 3-0 away in the first leg have progressed five times and have never been eliminated.

    Any hope for Chelsea? If we go by history alone, no. No team has overturned a 3-0 deficit when travelling away for the second leg. Saying that, Tottenham were 3-0 down on aggregate with 35 minutes to play in Amsterdam last season, so miracles do happen.

    RB Leipzig v Tottenham

    RB Leipzig beat Tottenham 1-0 in London before winning 3-0 in the second leg to secure a 4-0 aggregate victory.

    Here’s how their chances stood going into their last-16 second leg.

    Valencia v Atalanta

    Atalanta thrashed Valencia 4-1 in the first leg in Italy and then won again in Spain – 4-3 in a game played behind closed doors – to progress 8-4 on aggregate.

    Here’s how their chances stood going into Tuesday’s second leg.

    Source

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    March 11, 2020
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